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- 注册时间
- 2006-3-26
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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
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+ S: A0 A& l) O+ P' eGM Overview
; ]: I T8 S+ Q! S8 m& h) N( z7 B• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs/ k! y( C o2 H0 ^. M7 L
• Objectives7 Y+ i* X+ k G
– What do we “WANT” to do?
& \; C- v# |5 T9 S" z& O4 [% K$ g• External Analysis
: H2 X+ w8 M1 A+ V5 m– What do we “NEED” to do?
0 E0 ]. C' _% e& \. ^$ Z& g– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade4 J1 t$ Q4 T7 @8 P c8 q) C4 E( A
• opportunities & threats
% t4 H8 q! v& n, f0 I, G6 p– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs$ R5 j1 n6 h8 R& ?- |1 t$ \
• Internal Analysis' n$ h7 p. P( ?; M
– What “CAN” we do?4 ~' J. u: \7 [- i, G* p2 c
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
( ? J8 v; e# f3 |0 J/ a• abilities, strengths & weaknesses/ D! B7 S7 \1 Y+ m% P+ l
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES5 @& c1 L5 @& _
4 ]: h- Z/ F9 X5 p$ m• Alternative Evaluation
6 Q5 K/ R. X6 R4 e– What are the options?6 M2 |. W! v7 }
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
W, D3 L4 h: p U7 J– How does this option “FIT”?
: R% Z8 ^& x% S– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
9 {' B* e( e! }2 r; w2 m2 b0 ?– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
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. w2 Z2 f! g) f8 X' G2 s• Decision
6 K) {6 e- j6 @5 K% _– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).
8 E; ^ r2 l' V& I) m% m– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING. l2 v4 ], Z) P/ S
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?5 Z1 h+ s8 p, j
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?5 ]* C4 Z7 J8 m6 {( E5 G7 u* O6 b
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
! G$ C/ o0 z+ B3 o( Z• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
( |/ S5 F% a- E! I• Why NOT the other options?
( S6 Q/ X! ~/ X+ b+ j8 |3 D• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes
( |1 f" R- Z1 ?7 N# [% }8 Y- [% Uneed to be made?
0 @& u# E0 ~9 F1 u3 S [1 x; }2 r; q; s- D* D
• Action Plan
# `4 l* I- I) f! z ?• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;0 o( ^. a! e5 Y
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your) j7 z0 W" j% B+ K! l* N! }: R
decision9 Y* Z0 f: d2 c5 |. p
– details about timing& h7 R% `0 W. P
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’9 l/ v8 j2 V a8 g# z9 J
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)+ Y" Q# Q1 ?( ~
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
' U2 `+ J: t' t T# n* f
! } s0 a, u5 a9 N( R4 _; KFirm Valuation" y7 G: d5 U$ U) e
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.( m E/ L' ]5 X
• 3 methods of valuing a firm;# a( C% E" M8 _. w
– Net Book Value. ~8 f# l# t% k2 S0 G
– Economic Appraisal, F8 |/ ~( |( ?" S3 K% E& _
– Capitalization of Earnings
# a) f/ q) ?' ?1 E• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
7 M6 L. i9 {8 v' o. x/ Gcompany is worth.
( ~ ^9 y4 m9 F" J• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???, o( |( T, u" g! t( q7 w! l4 @
# V7 P* e: R1 [ Y
Net Book Value (NBV)) r* H9 _9 B$ s$ S5 k/ x
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities6 v/ N( I# P, g& s2 K- R
• a.k.a.. the equity) I3 p4 }5 N- q% z" d0 l4 Z7 k
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets6 _# p1 t$ R# p* {
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
* w' i b3 o; J. x6 `& b– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business U1 [1 z @$ J+ d% P
& N/ ?: @+ K b2 e1 o. a0 [ Economic Appraisal (EA)- `! \9 s5 b) A, |- [ ~7 d) q5 P
– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
# a2 A7 m, Y+ }! a/ m; D– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
4 ^# Z- n1 ^# \. c# m* M– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
- X" b3 E2 p2 x2 a5 F4 d* Y2 l0 i. |* a8 P1 f4 n V
Capitalization of Earnings (CE)6 F* @) u( X' f# K7 P: ~- T1 b% L# I
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S& r/ G4 u* ]5 i2 g7 l$ R
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
2 A+ T5 i1 d: U6 W– NPAT * P/E ratio = value
0 f B$ o2 R+ I* K6 v– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range). `+ E5 ~! ]3 q E$ b) Q) ~
• Assuming changes (projected statement)1 ~ \8 I; Y( {
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
. B H% d" |/ Y( O– Select a reasonable P/E multiple5 B' Z7 a# v+ y8 m# G M( L
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
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. X; z& O9 q$ W }! e" `& l8 [4 j( c7 K8 ]• P/E Multiple! _) L. l# L4 V" c- u
– Rules of thumb;
5 Q$ E' U9 H: x9 f$ a7 h! q• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples+ ~( B' J/ L/ H
from 5 to 15.
, i. h; A4 l& p4 ~+ }* A• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.! ~' X5 V5 a' \5 N1 e
• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
% _# i( h' Y8 v. i! F– growth increases a multiple9 h9 g1 \7 s: A3 n, D1 `
– risk decreases a multiple
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2 C0 v' X6 E+ t% t) b% {Their Associated Ratios- B+ Q5 X. I' B
• Profitability;
7 z% o" @6 r4 A" T$ I5 I1 P– Business goal - to make $$
a' t% A g0 X6 D: x. [, g– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales; x$ O& R$ X" B, ^; R
• Stability;& }" b2 o0 W$ j* H2 q7 S
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
' U6 c, G q7 ~. ^3 D– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
; ?8 K4 ~& z! @
( m( E, L+ M* Q1 a& w- {5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
$ d) e c$ J" R5 m8 A • Liquidity;- |! L6 g$ O" @2 i; i
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
W6 K( _8 i8 A- W4 v– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm
' S2 r D! M- F$ a( H1 R' zobligations): F% I" U' S2 f
• Efficiency;% E) }% S" C# i, R% T
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets2 G5 k6 g- G$ l2 l; c8 W
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
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$ |. x5 p# j8 N• Growth;
& F+ Z! \/ [9 s. d# K6 ?( }– Business goal - to increase in size
1 H6 H8 K1 w- T8 V– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth! P6 t! H$ b/ G4 h
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Interpreting the Ratios& `9 O6 S$ B* l* `0 h2 E
• Profitability;% f( L9 K0 l4 ~5 e
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
) |9 i& ^1 u- m8 S# B# I) u! i% gI/S items * 100 = % 4 h* z* E$ i+ T
Sales& `. j4 b& a) Z7 n, S# J# [
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales: I- K1 ]$ o* y" V
– Return on Investment/Equity
$ S3 N1 Y0 Y3 m7 w0 m4 tProfit ATB4D = %
: ]2 N _$ F6 T$ t. f! k2 AAverage Equity' p) [- {4 _$ W" ~6 r0 R1 c4 X1 L! j
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
- Y' ~+ V3 j8 e• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
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• Stability;- J. t) r) ?/ r$ J
– Net Worth: Total Assets9 D3 B7 D/ U1 t' ?+ ~
Total Equity = % - P/ h0 p: R3 N' V: S6 Z
Total Assets% `3 K5 W3 t: P2 Q
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money4 m% B! ]& r1 l, H
– Debt to Assets
6 V- Y4 ~$ _- a" F0 i! ]9 dTotal Debt = % / `9 Y8 r3 _2 l) F5 X
Total Assets
i, V7 W8 |+ U* h# \$ A• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt# }5 J- @0 }# u R3 z
– Interest Coverage
5 t8 n* G. R5 q G- I EBIT = # times
3 H5 G# L6 R+ i7 C* j1 o& t9 t: eInterest Expense4 [! Q, X3 S- N1 B; q/ X% s: Y/ U
• tells us how many times we can pay interest
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" Q8 Q) I1 i4 |• Liquidity;
, F2 `; N4 L0 ~$ o' Y– Current Ratio* E6 d( K) \1 w% ~' U' `
Current Assets = X:1- J# o% I) ? `. m8 P1 r
Current Liabilities
& ~+ m$ ^- k: n& ?6 O• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts( \0 ]5 x7 r2 X8 `5 q
RULE OF THUMB: 2:1
8 {* I7 w; w: g5 G& U– Acid Test9 i6 m( U6 I6 Z
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1
* [9 U' D# g5 \8 g# d1 UCurrent Liabilities
9 T/ v G' @" I9 v, Z& R3 h• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
5 d" A- N& y( F& sRULE OF THUMB: 1:1
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– Working Capital7 T8 v& C/ b; j. x
C.A - C.L = $X
. r' w! ^ Y' J: i& P/ `7 r• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
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9 K u7 G4 Q& Z- x2 B3 z) HEfficiency;
: X+ I I' f3 M& U– Age of Receivables
9 p6 i7 j( N; |8 IAccounts Receivabl = # Days
H; M' S9 |1 G* t (Sales / 365)
9 s! ^! c3 l, y a8 O• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
. a$ w1 J( b; g( z9 r& k9 T4 o3 z- U* H+ z; ]+ n$ g$ @4 t
– Age Of Payables
$ S( p+ b* k; l" d- n3 kAccounts Payable = # Days
1 W J( L" C/ j3 x(Purchases* / 365)
: Q7 W, G8 O2 u7 w% _$ P• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills+ p3 ^2 O! }. P$ A" A" }
+ n$ U$ p2 ?0 \% _! H- |– Age of Inventory
5 K& Z# R) g0 L6 e' R% Y Inventory = # Days
: ]7 K: h. C! Q0 O3 c$ I& ^+ ?(COGS / 365)6 o- P9 v+ J& [1 p) K6 V5 g. c: A7 ]" z
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
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8 v; {8 x5 Q- d R/ m• Growth;# \6 v: f: s1 R% |2 T, u
– Sales5 g! l( O; f4 g* g
– Net Income! f* a* q9 A# B: ?, ?) J
– Total Assets, m% p: B( m. l; |- z
– Equity
* s1 [9 L! E8 ~4 {; B% ?Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %/ _: X' Z' F- C. y
Yr. 1
8 ~, z( y/ x/ R5 M/ s/ A2 U• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)5 g8 W* |& n* _; r9 N
3 P, u: _0 e) O- T9 vUnderstanding Ratios2 e9 n2 k$ j1 q) n( @# D/ A
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”+ K/ q' K0 F/ O* p0 L
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio* H0 J5 t3 m6 ~ C f0 d( P
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”3 o! @: k |& I, W8 X* }
– Which number caused the change?% O" ~( |. d2 ^
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.; V+ D1 Y6 J* w; Y3 P4 D
– Will these trends continue?6 ^3 u ^6 Z1 }* ^, H/ c
– How does the company compare to the industry?
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) S0 N( K8 R$ a: K8 y. u* |Classifying Costs5 V6 f7 }, U( o$ u" i. S1 j) H, x
• Variable Costs
( B K- w% \! w% ~5 H2 v, T– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
% \# W4 H, l) q' s, ^7 Z( `• Fixed Costs- e# O8 h& Y7 h. H% W2 s- P& ^
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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