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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。; A) }, ^3 {& k0 y+ t/ ~
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GM Overview) x0 J9 C/ k5 ~
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs8 @7 D+ z- b) m& N' L6 w6 U
• Objectives
- j0 d% P# S( N% M- f! L– What do we “WANT” to do?3 g! g# t! v) `' e
• External Analysis
6 Z# q. @. S% O/ r– What do we “NEED” to do?" |5 ^% b' Z% `. `/ k, h; `; r
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade( @( _# P6 n8 U3 K! j% U( \
• opportunities & threats
* J) e) X- z: J7 K1 w– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs8 } s5 {! w/ ?) t
• Internal Analysis
% L& \' D$ U- ]+ P/ O! `+ E– What “CAN” we do?( d0 y* K! M& u ~5 Q; v
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR& I% j' L; c% p; N
• abilities, strengths & weaknesses) n# Q9 w# p! ~* K
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES$ W" |+ v" V' G/ @0 k# D
2 ], F3 d) c; v, s) _• Alternative Evaluation
5 X# \& T Z6 V: ~0 V– What are the options?( d2 v' y4 Z/ x( r8 d w
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options0 I9 _6 G, a: X5 q+ w2 Z
– How does this option “FIT”?
1 B8 w' G- G( f! Q- j5 s/ O! [– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)' H/ d" y) S0 p7 f; Q7 X) M9 ?0 a: O
– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
; U; L' t% C1 D& W$ E) r0 \4 j+ L
( D# @2 D6 C1 I• Decision
8 H6 \- p* t' R8 A" E– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).9 r. x+ }2 a, ^# P
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING. o/ d/ o' O3 k% c% X0 M# {* h
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?6 Z9 \% K5 [7 u' n9 k
• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
( A ^( k I9 E# Y2 X& a• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
8 p; |. b1 }' c& K; e( e8 Z• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
% E& ?5 n& _1 {0 T Y• Why NOT the other options?6 Y1 i9 l! ]$ }% p
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes8 [, r+ j) D6 c
need to be made?6 [$ o7 M7 g% t3 H$ W% d
0 T! y6 N' P0 g& E• Action Plan
. o1 k# e3 f" @' N$ V! U4 [- r• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
2 B3 c) K0 {) R& I– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
3 B5 x! v/ k6 M0 xdecision
7 s4 z$ s& j. A, P) ?( |– details about timing
9 D, ^ c$ _2 ?' S– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
( c& r$ X9 [1 W" z– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
2 L6 u1 Q5 q3 o% `4 i0 s9 ]. D– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
3 j( F6 H! M0 x/ v+ p+ e* v: N! |/ z
Firm Valuation2 S( {' x7 ]5 p
• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
& d2 V0 e) {5 R1 U• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
: V4 m$ N0 [) r3 G. f5 i– Net Book Value. ]8 }2 j9 V$ K( ? u$ H
– Economic Appraisal
6 Q; q4 ~: f3 u/ s# H– Capitalization of Earnings/ |7 P' o8 w& {, `4 r; B, M
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the7 O3 c- B3 T! ~# H% g
company is worth.
0 V' r4 M& S4 \ G% i/ F• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???) e8 @7 _5 E& i0 G* t
8 _3 Y8 k) ]- ` ]# Z. x5 K
Net Book Value (NBV)
/ b7 m6 A/ o2 [– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
7 P3 R8 p. [$ K0 ^+ b' {7 k# w• a.k.a.. the equity
# r' k0 ^( D l/ g& N– Does not account for the present market value of the assets8 B5 y8 l5 w- {( w, J" n
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
/ Y. E3 E6 d: x– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business
2 j- x8 y J& s3 m a& K6 z1 \
+ X4 M0 _) w9 y: q7 T Economic Appraisal (EA)
9 w' Z# ~0 m( R7 q; H8 Y" M+ f– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
+ B/ l' ~- G8 W3 @; Q– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
+ B& C. f* J k3 }– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets% {( x9 r! E& j
( |7 l8 c8 B8 Z, N1 ~3 ]2 J Capitalization of Earnings (CE)" {" S1 s- _& Q M5 F
– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S" L; x8 T. L8 C9 J
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
# c, o/ I! x5 f/ g# I0 S– NPAT * P/E ratio = value
( |/ L: `% e% E9 G: X– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)9 Y# B5 ?- I" r1 J; f `. x
• Assuming changes (projected statement)* W4 ^! ^. m: ^& F4 U8 a8 U" P
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)$ r$ H" Z* W: M3 H" W
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
0 C" L$ r, I# A. w% t8 _2 c% P– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)& s' F# ~( E, }) y! @2 r8 l) d
8 C7 c5 s6 f, O+ e$ h
• P/E Multiple# v' o o( M K# W" ]6 N. ]' L H4 h
– Rules of thumb;
& O2 G$ F1 F# A* Y• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
3 S* z2 \' V/ Gfrom 5 to 15.- ], p; @- M/ h; q& Z
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
5 w7 d2 O. h t• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”; p3 g" Z! _3 O& r1 U* A, ~; v
– growth increases a multiple' x0 w3 A, l) ^: s( M- c% m
– risk decreases a multiple; K# {# k v! s, ?0 a! L0 ?: \
$ L9 z( M4 [ z
Their Associated Ratios
8 ?+ X, v5 `% C5 o0 j+ F5 h• Profitability;
5 y* |- s5 }+ Z1 Q6 D– Business goal - to make $$
) x& x1 @3 T8 O– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
. F! l! n4 i" y* B% W• Stability;
, o# X3 z) E. S/ e* u! A* F1 p– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)9 j8 o3 O* r% q; {6 J3 t
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
! A% k; ? x. c1 X9 F2 K
) {' A$ I. M/ r5 p- N, T5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios: `$ ]) D( Y1 S( i7 m+ Q" k
• Liquidity;
& l* F2 R x R+ r– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations0 T$ b1 j1 w% ?7 g) j7 |
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm- f6 E' J: D+ I5 E5 _+ F! a% ^
obligations)' v0 G1 C) h- C+ p: D* w
• Efficiency;5 N& R, b6 L$ L& |9 h4 p
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets: u/ \8 M+ e, o: [ {" @
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments7 \& I+ N) \1 E* `/ \" I W4 z
$ A& J5 ]) f3 f2 ~ h: r
• Growth;
; a3 K3 R/ `0 p/ Y– Business goal - to increase in size3 U. `: ^; S' G% j, D: b) M+ t a2 a
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth1 `7 c) P$ z* B* K
5 w/ y5 N* ?/ q8 N& s+ r: X2 L* d$ vInterpreting the Ratios
' I) Q7 A4 l# @( V• Profitability;% W( d7 Z! Z3 P
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)+ n5 D2 v! T: p! j
I/S items * 100 = %
, _6 F u4 v4 S5 p7 } Sales( F& ?2 w0 S3 @* C8 L8 t$ O
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales; t- U: U, U; X4 Z" J7 e3 A
– Return on Investment/Equity
5 t6 h8 d6 q. n' F( [- RProfit ATB4D = % , o5 ?. [) h& W' c
Average Equity' P" [$ S1 Y/ p* A# W
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
+ _: A& |( k) k% S6 h• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
+ g( v& S- h7 K" I% D- _+ ]" l' o/ e, t6 O& a2 c" P
• Stability;; ], U5 y& j: u) A0 ~# l
– Net Worth: Total Assets" L1 M: K9 ]6 g ^5 N& J
Total Equity = %
) ?: Q7 p1 U4 n6 ?- y2 J) o0 A+ KTotal Assets9 v5 H7 n4 X8 y4 {
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money* B8 g/ D: b0 |( ?: T; o4 p
– Debt to Assets
' O2 J- L( j5 w' X& p# |. a& dTotal Debt = % * }9 |6 i; u) m2 x! j5 Y0 ]
Total Assets8 _8 s- P+ O5 Q$ `! B9 n$ q0 |
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt* r. i |% k5 T; ]% O
– Interest Coverage! K, x1 U' t! @" j
EBIT = # times
7 Y$ H# X: b. V7 i3 ]Interest Expense7 d" C6 o7 z# S5 i2 Y( o" [& y% o0 l5 A
• tells us how many times we can pay interest
( P1 c/ U& d0 _, k8 a: e4 K" I! C
• Liquidity;+ N, P& w, @; Z0 E
– Current Ratio1 f8 N$ q7 e5 f9 Z0 T7 `& T
Current Assets = X:1
! m7 @" ?& t: f- ]& u/ l) ?Current Liabilities, W- y+ ?7 ]7 s! q( f, [# u; m
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
5 B- A6 c( U7 s4 C9 ]RULE OF THUMB: 2:1
1 v& G/ _' B! Y; ^/ [– Acid Test
% ^+ I+ G- G+ a. a) r S$ gCash + M/S + A/R = X:1
4 ?9 T' O' h" d) FCurrent Liabilities# n( x. g: ~5 J7 ~$ V1 z
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
) G" _7 L3 i2 B/ sRULE OF THUMB: 1:12 g9 Y) Y: S: x$ j y/ d0 I
$ e4 f5 d6 F9 E/ @, L* V" k– Working Capital
( O! f+ @8 H, d! Z& \C.A - C.L = $X
- D8 n1 |; [! T+ A/ T& W8 x• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
1 G. N% Y% \8 Q: x) n9 L. r; }5 `( s7 C/ X* Y1 s- f# f
Efficiency;
% o; {% V5 K" K3 J– Age of Receivables8 [: \; x$ p0 X% d% B- H* K a
Accounts Receivabl = # Days F- J# O) j5 n* i1 C
(Sales / 365)
: L0 Q2 ^0 Z, [+ v• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
, p0 ]& g. ]! R* B) N7 m
2 y! z! m, T7 J0 _, U1 p) G3 S– Age Of Payables j3 A% G* e* J( `7 F
Accounts Payable = # Days0 V& f1 n" y8 }" o* v* f1 I6 w
(Purchases* / 365): |5 f4 h( O2 ^6 `, o
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
! |7 r: C2 ]; t" }1 L* g' ]3 `7 E; m$ B# V2 S1 ] i! @
– Age of Inventory
8 \" \& T! S4 l" t/ w7 L$ L Inventory = # Days
$ w0 b) x1 f" j, T9 q(COGS / 365)/ K R! V( ~1 Y T" a" U
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
! d5 A4 E2 w7 C6 i* W8 v" g$ T* N2 }$ o/ o U
• Growth;
, V. o$ [( B% O4 l# v– Sales9 \+ S5 r/ d' c$ s
– Net Income0 v# B! z* u9 t. Z2 l% x1 B3 o
– Total Assets
5 A7 ~+ g: g$ J6 H3 E! R" I– Equity
' ^. m% n' [. T' ?, HYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %. o! I: z# O2 _0 s
Yr. 1
' ^! S7 P7 Q/ J# M y, ?' U• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)3 I5 t4 v9 H& R- K$ ?: _" |
8 o" J$ j* `$ W3 @" pUnderstanding Ratios( n9 g+ {: I+ E8 b" G4 m' S
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”( ?! H8 e* Q/ O7 P+ U
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio0 o8 Q9 m9 O7 f& D
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
4 a# o) v. i5 m8 `! _6 e– Which number caused the change?, m! @! Z7 g4 s% M
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.+ L, X4 u1 \4 h5 e
– Will these trends continue?1 m3 b% d0 {3 }( _8 o; Z, @
– How does the company compare to the industry?
% R4 [. ^3 S9 K9 Q+ ^9 x* v+ v! H' U) g+ l5 D* l
5 h" U$ j! f$ l2 ^
Classifying Costs' b( f9 m. o. q( e+ q0 D8 f
• Variable Costs
1 Z k# f4 Q& Q$ G: V6 ]- o% m+ D– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)' Z) V; o$ }# G" N
• Fixed Costs
6 x2 ?- j* Y; U9 X& |* k" R1 @– cost that does not vary with volume |
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