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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。) I7 f1 \! o) M
4 S! ?/ Z! V6 x) {4 m9 I1 xGM Overview+ k( ~5 y( H* b: X4 r( r
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs
$ l0 i7 i4 a" j/ [9 Y• Objectives& N3 m1 L" x; {6 D9 y" d1 e
– What do we “WANT” to do?2 c. R& p% R9 e% B( U( i
• External Analysis
: E" |5 o: V% _* K2 Z) O, L– What do we “NEED” to do?; v9 a& o0 [7 U8 V+ V
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade, d/ I, W9 ?. F
• opportunities & threats U" ^0 H: n$ l6 U7 T2 l
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
( d) ?6 t' ~& @* B) v$ ?• Internal Analysis
) g9 x2 ~+ P! s, M- _* Y J– What “CAN” we do?
" L* S8 ^3 F- e7 ]– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
. r3 W) Z6 K+ J) \) K3 Z• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
' Y$ Y. ]( f5 X# I. ^; `– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
! o% ^/ g! I5 Y% s& e
( `, x4 N7 i8 U• Alternative Evaluation4 V; a9 @ p; c( Q/ y8 e; [" X/ c
– What are the options?
3 p+ ~* X* R% D7 s7 u- R6 \– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
9 S5 I E" ^( b% R& W– How does this option “FIT”?
^* O) `. T3 X# d+ y$ e) o/ K– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
9 ~ i* s% o. c5 f– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) 4 O$ j' T1 F) @% ^ b
! W6 F9 s- u% ^% G" J3 g: v• Decision
/ |' ^# x/ h% O- H0 G# K C4 M5 C– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).5 k5 o( _ z7 m( H0 Z) t. v6 B
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING
3 S8 ]- Z, r9 j• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
! r1 v- F3 y' Q; M" ` _• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?9 G7 K; m* ?4 I |9 @9 {2 b5 ^
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?8 z" T8 Y! q+ ~7 ]2 }8 P# }) |, x
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)7 L3 g/ v2 P% [+ q @$ p; B
• Why NOT the other options?
: B1 ]2 M% ]' O. j( ~• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes0 S7 H7 |% d9 P1 L: X
need to be made?. {8 D' F5 P2 n7 \
$ z* c4 L V! O: H; J% }; a
• Action Plan/ o# o5 _ x6 W4 C
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;: c% g- d0 n5 L0 Y x* h
– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your) Q7 U3 f' A& D3 m% G
decision
3 g: r- k4 N* r! Q9 \0 j* `– details about timing0 R( b! Z( E1 ^
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’, Z- v$ ^( n M, P: v1 S) {
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)6 x) j) ~3 `$ B O( Q0 A
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
/ O7 x. o/ b7 u6 G$ c! o
) r9 X+ `+ s* n* V% w' r" u3 {Firm Valuation
0 a; d2 q/ \$ |8 _" Z• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.% R% y! a4 f4 x1 {. g1 {2 T+ L" S) L
• 3 methods of valuing a firm;7 u- `4 U: V: L6 r( U* r+ D
– Net Book Value1 f J; {7 O4 q4 u$ m; b* I
– Economic Appraisal9 M! q6 ?1 O7 {, |8 i F( x4 h
– Capitalization of Earnings
4 Q! R3 A) r: K• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the) y+ Z' {- \! J, i3 k
company is worth.) P# B, Y8 h- a5 j2 d4 P7 {% f
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
( ]) h9 h% e7 P+ I
( \4 h7 N1 ~$ A. K Net Book Value (NBV)# n0 j$ h3 y4 {# B+ }. [3 w
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
" z9 C# S" b. n4 p& d• a.k.a.. the equity
8 R6 x6 E2 `4 M g" A* L) h5 r– Does not account for the present market value of the assets
" ~8 \. [" K8 h# ]– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
1 |: u! P/ U' V; r9 B– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business& M( J8 M* g/ u Z: |& G. K
4 k! s$ u2 \& i
Economic Appraisal (EA)
6 E# p( W L$ h2 k# i: s– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets% ~9 B4 ~! M8 M) w L/ q
– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities6 V J6 }6 L' A R+ i; s0 b- Z
– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
6 W. P2 S: C1 |# Z8 g
7 t# A# T/ G9 G2 z4 k Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
6 T" y( ]; r g– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S
$ X. w& P, W8 j8 I• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
& J: Z. _4 D& n; C– NPAT * P/E ratio = value8 v5 p9 p8 C. b# \$ p3 r6 f; b5 N
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
; n6 e& i- Q% Z- F, Z+ k s• Assuming changes (projected statement)
8 K b g/ r2 h. f( K2 x• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
& v3 I; x4 s. q: N8 l8 u– Select a reasonable P/E multiple4 Y/ b6 H9 L8 v# K3 }8 v. t
– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
7 p' ?) v; x! u, [
5 J. H' E2 Z6 Q d9 y6 s8 S• P/E Multiple
' d V( R8 U7 j6 y2 b5 Q, B7 k– Rules of thumb;2 C9 b% S) m5 [
• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples* e ?( ]! `7 E& r0 C+ z
from 5 to 15.3 M# h& \; l2 n8 e
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
) x4 t) W. O6 p- b( j# I8 U0 a% W• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”$ `1 F3 ^5 f, Y' k: b- f
– growth increases a multiple
6 g% n. ^: }: o8 c& E* ?+ w( O9 H– risk decreases a multiple
5 u1 a3 F& Q9 B7 W1 a1 k3 l |; E8 n$ H! Z; }6 @5 `6 [: \/ \" p
Their Associated Ratios! r' R5 D) F& J, J0 ^( e
• Profitability;! s& H& [( J" X6 i, b+ i
– Business goal - to make $$
" w6 i9 O$ p; C7 b– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales: D9 X, d' p- x% d1 ^
• Stability;+ ?: X: `- a9 H" Y x+ n
– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)1 `/ S. `9 J& x# ^. a" M6 H' |5 c
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
6 F5 Y4 ?# i8 Q, K9 L0 L- f( J# X- e. Y
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios4 r( u6 E/ F4 m1 v
• Liquidity;) \" K8 Q% g" a" t( I# d8 k5 d
– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations$ D. x" o" L, ^3 `( x
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm, c' G, L! k! k; C, v2 G
obligations)/ t t5 j* e( i! Y
• Efficiency;: U' ^! |+ v0 m
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets& k `( w* {: S1 ~/ j* R( o
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
2 Z- r- }+ n8 T% R" V9 I; ]& b3 r4 R: ?
• Growth;4 s [, {$ F" A; j4 P( }
– Business goal - to increase in size8 h5 U5 |( W& p- R, n
– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth T$ S: m8 }- e6 f2 ~
( e" o/ u0 \& v7 \/ ^Interpreting the Ratios0 T& A! L2 Y( f2 G$ U6 q
• Profitability;
Z0 b/ z; `3 {– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
+ ^( |$ D4 \. h0 Z( @% `5 ^I/S items * 100 = % ) p1 k# w! Y8 ]- [ j1 n% t: Q, ]
Sales
/ M5 j! i( Y7 f5 m" p: o, X! @• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales( w# J2 s: Z7 G6 V: R" t% g
– Return on Investment/Equity
# k5 l7 T0 V: f% W3 Y6 nProfit ATB4D = % 0 j2 A* ?7 G9 `3 R1 \
Average Equity0 @: O# ?" O& P4 I) m1 t% { X
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]
5 \; Y: z( ]" m0 i& c2 H• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners/ r _% b: R; M) s6 a1 d% ]( s
; I" J5 o# y) b$ }1 N# }( W
• Stability;
7 B/ w* }* s2 Z' v9 v) p– Net Worth: Total Assets
4 l) |2 N' j* GTotal Equity = %
* Y& Q- d/ f. m1 i" a0 S# q! N' Z. xTotal Assets
+ V; Z; l9 u2 {$ B! f. D8 \ m: n• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
$ P. M" r6 ]% Y5 v: H6 P– Debt to Assets. o& ` Q/ G$ c2 I
Total Debt = %
1 @9 r8 [3 X' L! ]' x& H! fTotal Assets/ b8 [7 \# o0 d! @6 H& \9 l& d, u) H
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
4 q5 @) y/ [ h+ D6 v3 ?' I$ R6 c' c– Interest Coverage9 o- v1 n! `; o% j! x
EBIT = # times8 I0 i) N. `. R7 R0 }
Interest Expense
+ \( {9 T9 z- F! p; L7 e• tells us how many times we can pay interest5 U0 E3 c) i5 V: G' Y- E& q" \
/ [8 d0 |. L) ?1 g q5 o$ {% B$ Y
• Liquidity;4 [* I1 d1 d* N% `4 a! F; D
– Current Ratio
/ u' m# w$ s4 L( k9 L# WCurrent Assets = X:1& g, ]" Q' C+ V% ]1 b
Current Liabilities
# |" n. k0 D+ R• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
, l1 g- _2 E* aRULE OF THUMB: 2:14 k; S0 P% T. v7 ~/ v5 k
– Acid Test
; J' P0 ]2 C0 g/ {0 ]+ B7 Q1 O. _8 TCash + M/S + A/R = X:1/ I/ y$ R& v2 U+ _$ k1 X) r
Current Liabilities
& \( i6 Q0 c- O* z; Z( I• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
d/ D* v( g# t, tRULE OF THUMB: 1:1
: a( p% h& f2 U* j+ v0 S5 m, Z$ s/ f4 i0 M# B0 l$ [
– Working Capital
0 h) B0 I, `- [9 e2 lC.A - C.L = $X
4 c4 |6 G# Q7 w' _# f T• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
+ K& J7 p L! |; b- d/ z7 n# z8 C. E+ u
Efficiency;+ {& _" L8 e! @2 Q
– Age of Receivables
+ J: L5 P1 _) m- I0 tAccounts Receivabl = # Days
5 L% ?1 B* E! `1 f$ a (Sales / 365)( o" u N) U3 ~3 R2 B
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$6 P# t& S; F( K" \; n% H
0 C7 e. s2 B% g' p9 T" y0 S– Age Of Payables
- a! M6 U7 Z- A" xAccounts Payable = # Days# c, C& v* I- k9 ? T
(Purchases* / 365)# z& V9 h4 D7 L
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
7 \4 q6 {' [; K- b8 H4 e; r- x' `/ g' q1 o
– Age of Inventory
; J6 ?& n r0 @: F: d7 ?; P Inventory = # Days
2 v# _& u% x4 j5 P(COGS / 365)
& f3 M6 v& |/ @( o2 X' H4 P7 \• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
4 k/ n3 s- U) V
1 j y4 F! O: G# v• Growth;! K" d2 d) c- Y9 d* x
– Sales
9 z4 w8 R/ p! q' I" C& P/ N) O– Net Income
9 E7 W1 S4 ?8 V– Total Assets
' e4 n0 j8 I. ]1 C– Equity7 P: J# s) Z4 m, \$ a4 A* R
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %% J1 {7 \% O, }! S
Yr. 1( G& V8 G+ F/ p# m" g5 ^8 m
• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
5 s% k' B0 A, l8 {, S# [8 i
/ R- |& ^% W/ X) q6 a0 _Understanding Ratios! R* v* A3 I# Q: p% w: A: C
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
6 V$ I' @* m6 H# H+ u! Y5 u• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio( q3 x4 |& u5 t2 ?) V0 ?
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”% `5 i9 y: `. u$ n9 v
– Which number caused the change?; p, N2 T& ~# C! V& A
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.. L8 G7 K0 Q+ B, L1 t- P7 ^
– Will these trends continue?
. Y5 H: w4 {" M& v1 |+ i8 T. {; P+ H– How does the company compare to the industry?- ]3 Q( D) f/ ?8 ] C& s0 s
: o0 d0 M. a8 t# T" C: J# W- J# U0 b- b, Z# o# Y
Classifying Costs, \$ K9 x) l) F* ?) u+ F* t
• Variable Costs. T: @9 J) F) w( z
– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)& o* u+ V8 ?, ^* u
• Fixed Costs
+ z# z, A9 G0 ]2 }3 c– cost that does not vary with volume |
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